Recession Probability

This app pulls the current 3-month and 10-year treasury bond rates from the treasury.gov website and uses them to calculate an estimate of the chance of a recession occurring in the next year. It turns out that this relatively simple measure significantly outperforms most other analyses at predicting recessions two to six quarters ahead.This app also features a display of the current yield curve, a graph of bond yields against bond terms. An upward sloping yield curve is an indicates a normal economy; a flat or downward sloping yield curve foretells a recession.